Research Papers:

Long-term prediction of prostate cancer diagnosis and death using PSA and obesity related anthropometrics at early middle age: data from the malmö preventive project

Melissa J. Assel, Axel Gerdtsson, Daniel L.J. Thorek, Sigrid V. Carlsson, Johan Malm, Peter T. Scardino, Andrew Vickers, Hans Lilja and David Ulmert _

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Oncotarget. 2018; 9:5778-5785. https://doi.org/10.18632/oncotarget.22981

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Melissa J. Assel1, Axel Gerdtsson2,3, Daniel L.J. Thorek4, Sigrid V. Carlsson1,5,6, Johan Malm3, Peter T. Scardino5, Andrew Vickers1, Hans Lilja3,5,7,8 and David Ulmert2,9

1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA

2Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden

3Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden

4Division of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA

5Urology Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA

6Institute of Clinical Sciences, Sahlgrenska Academy at Gothenburg University, Gothenburg, Sweden

7Departments of Laboratory Medicine and Medicine, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA

8Nuffield Department of Surgical Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

9Molecular Pharmacology Program, Sloan Kettering Institute, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA

Correspondence to:

David Ulmert, email: [email protected]

Keywords: PSA; obesity; BMI; weight; prostate cancer

Received: October 10, 2017     Accepted: November 11, 2017     Published: December 05, 2017


Objectives: To evaluate whether anthropometric parameters add to PSA measurements in middle-aged men for risk assessment of prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis and death.

Results: After adjusting for PSA, both BMI and weight were significantly associated with an increased risk of PCa death with the odds of a death corresponding to a 10 kg/m2 or 10 kg increase being 1.58 (95% CI 1.10, 2.28; p = 0.013) and 1.14 (95% CI 1.02, 1.26; p = 0.016) times greater, respectively. AUCs did not meaningfully increase with the addition of weight or BMI to prediction models including PSA.

Materials and Methods: In 1974 to 1986, 22,444 Swedish men aged 44 to 50 enrolled in Malmö Preventive Project, Sweden, and provided blood samples and anthropometric data. Rates of PSA screening in the cohort were very low. Documentation of PCa diagnosis and disease-specific death up to 2014 was retrieved through national registries. Among men with anthropometric measurements available at baseline, a total of 1692 men diagnosed with PCa were matched to 4190 controls, and 464 men who died of disease were matched to 1390 controls. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to determine whether diagnosis or death from PCa were associated with weight and body mass index (BMI) at adulthood after adjusting for PSA.

Conclusions: Men with higher BMI and weight at early middle age have an increased risk of PCa diagnosis and death after adjusting for PSA. However, in a multi-variable numerical statistical model, BMI and weight do not importantly improve the predictive accuracy of PSA. Risk-stratification of screening should be based on PSA without reference to anthropometrics.

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