Research Papers:

Cancer mortality trends in an industrial district of Shanghai, China, from 1974 to 2014, and projections to 2029

Mi Li, Shuo Wang, Xue Han, Wenbin Liu, Jiahui Song, Hongwei Zhang, Jia Zhao, Fan Yang, Xiaojie Tan, Xi Chen, Yan Liu, Hui Li, Yibo Ding, Xiaoyu Du, Jianhua Yin, Rong Zhang and Guangwen Cao _

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Oncotarget. 2017; 8:92470-92482. https://doi.org/10.18632/oncotarget.21419

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Mi Li1,*, Shuo Wang1,*, Xue Han2,*, Wenbin Liu1, Jiahui Song1, Hongwei Zhang1, Jia Zhao2, Fan Yang1, Xiaojie Tan1, Xi Chen1, Yan Liu1, Hui Li2, Yibo Ding1, Xiaoyu Du1, Jianhua Yin1, Rong Zhang2 and Guangwen Cao1

1Department of Epidemiology, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China

2Department of Chronic Diseases, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Yangpu District, Shanghai 200090, China

*These authors have contributed equally to this work

Correspondence to:

Guangwen Cao, email: [email protected]

Keywords: age-standardized mortality, cancer-caused life loss, pollution, lifestyle

Abbreviations: APC: Annual Percentage Change

Received: June 15, 2017     Accepted: August 28, 2017     Published: September 30, 2017


We aimed to characterize the trends and projections of cancer mortalities in Yangpu, an industry restructuring district of Shanghai, China. With high-quality data from the death registration system, the authors analyzed the trends in cancer mortalities during 1974-2014 and their relationship with pollution control and socioeconomic improvements. Cancer burden was projected into 2029. During 1974-2014, cancer death accounted for 28.80% of all-cause death. The 5 leading causes of cancer death were cancers of the lung & bronchus, stomach, liver, colon & rectum, and esophagus. Age-standardized mortality of all cancers was higher in men than in women (153.1/105 vs. 88.8/105, p<0.001) and increased from 1974 to 1991 and decreased thereafter. The mortalities of cancers of the larynx, bladder, liver, nasopharynx, lung & bronchus, esophagus, lip oral & pharynx, stomach, kidney, and lymphoma were significantly higher in men than in women. Age-standardized mortalities of cancers of the esophagus, stomach, leukemia, female nasopharynx, female bladder, liver, and bone decreased especially after the 1990s, those of the colon & rectum, kidney, prostate, pancreas, breast, gallbladder, and ovary increased significantly. Lung cancer, breast cancer, colorectal cancer, and pancreas cancer in women and lung cancer, colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, and stomach cancer in men will be the leading causes of cancer death in 2025-2029. Cancer-caused life loss kept increasing since 2000. Conclusively, cancers associated with pollutions and infection decreased, especially after the 1990s, while those related to metabolic syndrome increased. These trends are related to closedown of polluted industries in the 1980s and lifestyle changes.

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PII: 21419