Nomogram predicting pulmonary metastasis of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation
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Li-Feng Huang1,*, Ping Wan1,*, Dong-Wei Xu1,*, Seogsong Jeong1, Ming-Xuan Feng1, Jian-Jun Zhang1 and Qiang Xia1
1Department of Hepatic Surgery, Ren Ji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200127, China
*These authors have contributed equally to this work
Qiang Xia, email: [email protected]
Keywords: nomogram; liver transplantation; hepatocellular carcinoma; prognosis; pulmonary metastasis
Received: June 09, 2017 Accepted: September 21, 2017 Published: December 19, 2017
A novel prognostic nomogram predicting post-transplant pulmonary metastasis was established with a primary cohort of 308 HCC patients who received liver transplantation between 2007 and 2011 at Ren Ji Hospital. The C-indexes for predicting pulmonary metastasis was 0.85. The calibration curves fitted well between the predicted and actual outcomes. The decision curve analysis indicated that our nomogram was the optimal decision-making strategy for PM prediction compared to Milan, University of California San Franscisco, and up-to-seven criteria. These results were further validated by data from 103 patients who underwent liver transplantation between 2011 and 2012 at the same institution. In conclusion, our nomogram could be used as an effective tool to predict PM after liver transplantation.
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