Risk assessment models to evaluate the necessity of prostate biopsies in North Chinese patients with 4-50 ng/mL PSA
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Jing Zhao1,*, Shuai Liu1,*, Dexuan Gao1, Sentai Ding1, Zhihong Niu1, Hui Zhang2, Zhilong Huang3, Juhui Qiu4, Qing Li5, Ning Li6, Fang Xie7, Jilei Cui1, Jiaju Lu1
1Department of Urology, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
2Department of Urology, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University (East Branch), Jinan, People’s Republic of China
3Department of Urology, Lanling People’s Hospital, Lanling, People’s Republic of China
4Department of Urology, Dongying People’s Hospital, Dongying, People’s Republic of China
5Department of Urology, Yucheng People’s Hospital, Yucheng, People’s Republic of China
6Department of Urology, Guangrao County Hospital of traditional Chinese Medicine, Guangrao, People’s Republic of China
7Department of Urology, Weihai Municipal Hospital, Weihai, People’s Republic of China
*These authors have contributed equally to this work
Jiaju Lu, email: [email protected]
Keywords: prostate cancer, risk assessment model, PSA, biopsy, North China
Received: September 20, 2016 Accepted: November 23, 2016 Published: December 26, 2016
Background: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is widely used for prostate cancer screening, but low specificity results in high false positive rates of prostate biopsies.
Objective: To develop new risk assessment models to overcome the diagnostic limitation of PSA and reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies in North Chinese patients with 4–50 ng/mL PSA.
Methods: A total of 702 patients in seven hospitals with 4–10 and 10–50 ng/mL PSA, respectively, who had undergone transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsies, were assessed. Analysis-modeling stage for several clinical indexes related to prostate cancer and renal function was carried out. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to develop new risk assessment models of prostate cancer for both PSA level ranges 4-10 and 10-50 ng/mL. External validation stage of the new models was performed to assess the necessity of biopsy.
Results: The new models for both PSA ranges performed significantly better than PSA for detecting prostate cancers. Both models showed higher areas under the curves (0.937 and 0.873, respectively) compared with PSA alone (0.624 and 0.595), at pre-determined cut-off values of 0.1067 and 0.6183, respectively. Patients above the cut-off values were recommended for immediate biopsy, while the others were actively observed. External validation of the models showed significantly increased detection rates for prostate cancer (4-10 ng/mL group, 39.29% vs 17.79%, p=0.006; 10-50 ng/mL group, 71.83% vs 50.0%, p=0.015).
Conclusions: We developed risk assessment models for North Chinese patients with 4–50 ng/mL PSA to reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies and increase the detection rate of prostate cancer.
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