Using weighted regression model for estimating cohort effect in age-period contingency table data
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I-Shiang Tzeng1,2,3, Chau Yee Ng4,5, Jau-Yuan Chen6,7, Li-Shya Chen8 and Chin-Chieh Wu9
1Department of Research, Taipei Tzu Chi Hospital, Buddhist Tzu Chi Medical Foundation, New Taipei City, Taiwan
2Department of Statistics, National Taipei University, Taipei, Taiwan
3Bachelor’s Program of Financial Engineering and Actuarial Science, Feng Chia University, Taichung City, Taiwan
4Department of Dermatology, Drug Hypersensitivity Clinical and Research Center, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
5School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
6Department of Family Medicine, Chang-Gung Memorial Hospital, Linkou Branch, Taoyuan City, Taiwan
7College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
8Department of Statistics, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan
9Department of Emergency Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung, Taiwan
I-Shiang Tzeng, email: [email protected]
Keywords: age-period-cohort; multiphase method; prediction; hepatocellular carcinoma
Received: May 18, 2017 Accepted: February 22, 2018 Published: April 13, 2018
Background: Recently, the multiphase method was proposed to estimate cohort effects after removing the effects of age and period in age-period contingency table data. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary malignancy of the liver and is strongly associated with cirrhosis, due to both alcohol and viral etiologies. In epidemiology, age-period-cohort (APC) model can be used to describe (or predict) the secular trend in HCC mortality.
Results: The confidence interval (CI) of the weighted estimates was found to be relatively narrow (compared to unweighted estimates). Moreover, for males, the mortality trend reverses itself during 2006–2010 was found from an increasing trend into a slightly deceasing trend. For females, the increasing trend reverses (earlier than males) itself during 2001–2005.
Conclusions: The weighted estimation of the regression model is recommended for the multiphase method in estimating the cohort effects in age-period contingency table data.
Impact: The regression model can be modified through the weighted average estimate of the effects with narrower CI of each cohort.
Methods: After isolating the residuals during the median polish phase, the final phase is to estimate the magnitude of the cohort effects using the regression model of these residuals on the cohort category with the weight equal to the occupied proportion according to the number of death of HCC in each cohort.
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