Prediction of early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma within the Milan criteria after radical resection
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Jiliang Feng1,*, Junmei Chen2,*, Ruidong Zhu3, Lu Yu1, Yan Zhang1, Dezhao Feng4, Heli Kong1, Chenzhao Song1, Hui Xia5, Jushan Wu3 and Dawei Zhao6
1Clinical-Pathology Center, Beijing You-An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
2Medical Laboratory Center, Beijing You-An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
3Surgical Center, Beijing You-An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
4College of Life Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
5Surgical Center, The 304th Hospital of PLA, Beijing, China
6Medical Imaging Department, Beijing You-An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
*These authors have contributed equally to this work
Jiliang Feng, email: [email protected]
Dawei Zhao, email: [email protected]
Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, Milan criteria, radical resection, cytokeratin 19, glypican 3
Received: September 22, 2016 Accepted: June 02, 2017 Published: June 28, 2017
Approximately 50% hepatocellular carcinoma patients meeting the Milan criteria utilized to develop an improved prognostic model for predicting the recurrence in these patients. Using univariate and multivariate analysis, cytokeratin-19 and glypican-3 expression patterns, tumor number and histological grading from eight putative prognostic factors comprised the risk factor scoring model to predict the tumor recurrence. In the training cohort, the area under roc curve (AUC) value of the model was 0.715 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.645−0.786, P<0.001], which was the highest among all the parameters. The performance of the model was assessed using an independent validation cohort, wherein the AUC value was 0.760 (95% CI=0.647−0.874, P<0.001), which was higher than the other factors. The results indicated that model had high performance with adequate discrimination ability. Moreover, it significantly improved the predictive capacity for the recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma within the Milan criteria after radical resection.
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