Research Papers:

Development of comprehensive nomograms for evaluating overall and cancer-specific survival of laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma patients treated with neck dissection

Xiao Shi, Wei-ping Hu and Qing-hai Ji _

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Oncotarget. 2017; 8:29722-29740. https://doi.org/10.18632/oncotarget.15414

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Xiao Shi1,2, Wei-ping Hu3, Qing-hai Ji1,2

1Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, China

2Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

3Department of Respiratory Medicine, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

Correspondence to:

Qing-hai Ji, email: [email protected]

Keywords: laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma, nomogram, overall survival, cancer-specific survival, lymph node ratio

Received: November 30, 2016     Accepted: February 01, 2017     Published: February 16, 2017


Background: Neck dissection for laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) patients could provide complementary prognostic information for AJCC N staging, like lymph node ratio (LNR). The aim of this study was to develop effective nomograms to better predict survival for LSCC patients treated with neck dissection.

Results: 2752 patients were identified and randomly divided into training (n = 2477) and validation (n = 275) cohorts. The 3- and 5-year probabilities of cancer-specific mortality (CSM) were 30.1% and 37.2% while 3- and 5-year death resulting from other causes (DROC) rate were 6.2% and 11.3%, respectively. 13 significant prognostic factors including LNR for overall (OS) and 12 (except race) for CSS were enrolled in the nomograms. Concordance index as a commonly used indicator of predictive performance, showed the nomograms had superiority over the no-LNR models and TNM classification (Training-cohort: OS: 0.713 vs 0.703 vs 0.667, CSS: 0.725 vs 0.713 vs 0.688; Validation-cohort: OS: 0.704 vs 0.690 vs 0.658, cancer-specific survival (CSS): 0.709 vs 0.693 vs 0.672). All calibration plots revealed good agreement between nomogram prediction and actual survival.

Materials and Methods: We identified LSCC patients undergoing neck dissection diagnosed between 1988 and 2008 from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Optimal cutoff points were determined by X-tile program. Cumulative incidence function was used to analyze cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and death resulting from other causes (DROC). Significant predictive factors were used to establish nomograms estimating overall (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The nomograms were bootstrapped validated both internally and externally.

Conclusions: Comprehensive nomograms were constructed to predict OS and CSS for LSCC patients treated with neck dissection more accurately.

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