Oncotarget

Research Papers:

A nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis in patients with early gastric cancer

Chun Guang Guo, Dong Bing Zhao _, Qian Liu, Zhi Xiang Zhou, Ping Zhao, Gui Qi Wang and Jian Qiang Cai

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Oncotarget. 2017; 8:12203-12210. https://doi.org/10.18632/oncotarget.14660

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Abstract

Chun Guang Guo1, Dong Bing Zhao1, Qian Liu1, Zhi Xiang Zhou1, Ping Zhao1, Gui Qi Wang2, Jian Qiang Cai1

1Department of Abdominal Surgical Oncology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China

2Department of Endoscopy, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China

Correspondence to:

Dong Bing Zhao, email: [email protected]

Gui Qi Wang, email: [email protected]

Keywords: gastric cancer, lymph node metastasis, nomogram, endoscopic resection, decision analysis

Received: April 05, 2016     Accepted: December 25, 2016     Published: January 14, 2017

ABSTRACT

Background: Lymph node status is crucial to determining treatment for early gastric cancer (EGC). We aim to establish a nomogram to predict the possibility of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in EGC patients.

Methods: Medical records of 952 EGC patients with curative resection, from 2002 to 2014, were retrospectively retrieved. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to examine risk factors associated with LNM. A nomogram for predicting LNM was established and internally validated.

Results: Five variables significantly associated with LNM were included in our model, these are sex (Odd ratio [OR] = 1.961, 95% confidence index [CI], 1.334 to 2.883; P = 0.001), depth of tumor (OR = 2.875, 95% CI, 1.872 to 4.414; P = 0.000), tumor size (OR = 1.986, 95% CI, 1.265 to 3.118; P = 0.003), histology type (OR = 2.926, 95% CI, 1.854 to 4.617; P = 0.000) and lymphovascular invasion (OR = 4.967, 95% CI, 2.996 to 8.235; P = 0.000). The discrimination of the prediction model was 0.786.

Conclusions: A nomogram for predicting lymph node metastasis in patients with early gastric cancer was successfully established, which was superior to the absolute endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) indication in terms of the clinical performance.


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