Nomograms for prognostic factors of spinal giant cell tumor combining traditional clinical characteristics with inflammatory biomarkers after gross total resection

Abstract

Giant cell tumor (GCT) of bone is a common primary bone tumor, which exhibits local aggressiveness and recurrent potential, especially for the spinal lesion. Increasing evidence indicates that inflammation plays a vital role in tumorigenesis and progression. The prognostic value of inflammatory biomarkers in GCT has not been established. A retrospective analysis was conducted in patients with spinal GCT in Changzheng Hospital Orthopedic Oncological Center (CHOOC) between January 2005 and October 2015 and 129 patients were identified eligible. Traditional clinical parameters and inflammatory indexes such as Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), and albumin/globulin ratio (AGR) were concluded and analyzed. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to calculate the disease-free survival (DFS). Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the prognostic factors. Nomograms were established to predict DFS quantitatively for the first time, and Harrell’s concordance index (c-index) was adopted to evaluate prediction accuracy. As results, the DFS was 78.3% in the cohort. Patients were stratified into 2 groups by NLR (≤ 2.70 and > 2.70), PLR (≤ 215.80 and > 215.80), LMR (≤ 2.80 and >2.80) and AGR (< 1.50 and ≥ 1.50). Patients with NLR > 2.70, PLR > 215.80, LMR ≤ 2.80 and AGR < 1.50 were significantly associated with decreased DFS (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that treatment history, tumor length, bisphosphonate treatment, NLR and PLR were independent factors of DFS (p < 0.05, respectively). In addition, nomogram on DFS was established according to all significant factors, and c-index was 0.728 (95% CI: 0.710-0.743). Nomograms based on DFS can be recommended as practical models to evaluate prognosis for spinal GCT patients.